The Home Stretch! (College Football Week 10 Preview)

Matt: Welcome to Week 10! What a week we had last week in college football and with each Saturday, the championship picture is becoming a bit clearer. Another undeafted team fell last week in Missouri, blowing a fourth quarter lead and missing a chip shot in double overtime to probably dismantle their chances of finding themselves in the last BCS national championship. But alas, five teams still remain perfect through week10: Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor, and the Ducks of Oregon. As we get closer to bowl season, we’ll be on a higher alert of these teams and give you more information on who is looking to find themselves in Pasadena, California come January 6^th, 2014.

Ryan once again dominated me last week in terms of picks. He picked seven more correctly than me this week, taking his lead to 11 games. I guess I’ll have to do a bit more research on games so I can bridge this gap. At this point in the season, Ryan is 396-129 (.754) and I am 385-140 (.733) This week, Ryan and I will be talking about 7 different matchups. So let’s get right into it.

Michigan at Michigan State, Saturday 3:30 PM, ABC

Matt: Honestly for me, the Big Ten has surprised me a bit. I did not think Minnesota would be bowl eligible at this point, and I did not think that Michigan State would be ranked going into this game. This game, when looking at it before the college football season started looked like an easy win for Michigan, but now I’m not entirely sure.  Michigan State is coming off a huge win over Illinois last week, with Connor Cook throwing for 208 yards and 3 touchdown passes, but it was really the rushing game that killed the Fightin Illini last week, Michigan State rushed for 269 yards against Illinois and after struggling to puts points on the board against Purdue the previous week, Michigan State looks like a real threat going into this game. I don’t think Ryan or myself really thought that the Spartans were going to be challenging for the division title, but it looks like that might be a possibility. They are doing it with defense, only allowing 12.3 points per game, which is third in FBS. Michigan is coming off a bye after scoring 63 points against my Hoosiers, and allowing 47. Michigan isn’t going to score that much against this Spartans D, they are tough. Brady Hoke is undeafted at home, but at the end of the day I think this Michigan State defense is tough enough to stop the Wolverines and hand Hoke his first loss at the Big House.
Winner: Michigan State

Ryan: Michigan’s high scoring offense clashes up against Michigan State’s dominant defense. This will be a marquee game for Devin Gardner, who has put up impressive numbers at the quarterback position. Michigan is an overtime win away from being undefeated and a national title contender. Now , the Wolverines go into East Lansing as the underdog. Michigan State has skated under the radar all year with no impressive wins and getting physically outplayed by Notre Dame. This rivalry matchup looks a lot closer on paper then it will be in real life. Michigan has too much star power.
Winner: Michigan

Minnesota at Indiana, Saturday 3:30 PM, Big Ten Network

Matt: Every year I say, as an Indiana fan, how I wished we played Minnesota because they are just as terrible as us. This year is the one exception. I remember looking at the schedule when it was released and being super happy that for the first time in five years we would be playing Minnesota, and it would be an easy W with the talent and offense we have. Now, after watching the Hoosiers give up 63 points to Michigan and watching Minnesota upset Nebraska and starting to get attention in the national polls, I’m not so sure anymore. The QB carasoul is starting once against for my Hoosiers, with Wilson pulling Sudfield in the second quarter in favor of Tre Roberson. Look, I’m okay with either quarterback, they both have their cons and pros, but Wilson needs to be consistent so they can develop a rhythm. I’m hoping that the environment in Memorial Stadium will help this game, it is homecoming after all, hopefully a strong force of alumni will show up to this game and be the key factor we need. This Minnesota team is 6-2 and has already knocked off Nebraska, and Northwestern (who may be the biggest disappointment of the Big Ten season, but that is another story). If Indiana is to win this game, they’ll have to stop the high powered rushing offense of Minnesota which is averaging 217.8 per game, fourth in the Big Ten. Indiana is ranked dead last in total defense in the Big Ten, but I think the Hoosiers will learn from the Michigan game and set up for this huge homecoming game. No surprises here, I’m going with my Hoosiers.
Winner: Indiana

Ryan: The matchup in Bloomington is very interesting. Indiana is looking to add wins to become bowl eligible while Minnesota is trying to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten title. Nate Sudfeld has helped the Hoosiers become the eighth best scoring offense in the country with his 1700 yards and 14 touchdown passes. Indiana has been terrible on defense, however, giving up more than 37 points a game. In every loss this season, the opponents have scored over 40 points. The Gophers have done most of its damage on the ground, rushing for over 215 yards a game. Minnesota has a strong defense that is able to shut down opponents.  With a strong defense from the Gophers and a lack of one for the Hoosiers, I see Minnesota being able to stop Sudfeld and come away with the win.
Winner: Minnesota

Ohio State at Purdue, Saturday Noon, Big Ten Network

Matt: The Buckeyes are coming off a huge win over Penn State. Only allowing Penn State to find the endzone twice, and Braxton Miller going off throwing for 3 touchdowns and and rushing for another two. Purdue, on the other hand, is coming off a bye after holding Michigan State to only 14 points but being unable to find the end zone and ending up with a goose egg on their side of the scoreboard. That being said, this should be a no brainer, Ohio State should win this one. However, in the last couple of years Purdue has been able to test Ohio State. Unfortunately, this isn’t the same Purdue team that was able to test them. This is a game that I’m sure many Purdue fans are going to want to forget, just like my Hoosiers always dread and try to block our embarrassing losses to Wisconsin the last ten years.  Ohio State wins big again here.
Winner: Ohio State

Ryan: Ohio State should have a queasy feeling this week. The Buckeyes face a Boilermaker team that has always given them trouble. This year looks to be the same.  Purdue is in the middle of a rebuilding phase after Danny Hope tore the team down. Ohio State has looked good all year, led by Braxton Miller and backup Kenny Guitton. The Buckeyes have stayed rounded with a top 20 scoring and scoring defense. Purdue on the other hand has played terribly. The Boilermakers were fortunate to beat Indiana State, but have not showed much promise the rest of the year. However, Purdue has been known to spoil the hopes of Big Ten teams. Like they did with the Irish, the Boilermakers will rise to the occasion and Danny Etling will grow up before our eyes. Purdue wins in a shocker.
Winner: Purdue

Navy at Notre Dame, Saturday 3:30 PM, NBC

Matt: Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over another service branch, the Air Force, winning the game 45-10, which is their largest margin of victory this year. The Midshipmen, on the other hand, barely escape the Panthers of Pitt and needed a last second field goal to get pass them. When looking at Navy, you have to look at the other team’s rushing defense. Mostly because all Navy does is run the triple option. Notre Dame is ranked 42^nd in rushing defense. Which isn’t that bad, but isn’t great either. If Notre Dame wants to stop the rushing attack of Navy, they’ll have to figure out a way to stop QB Keenan Reynolds, who is 16^th in rushing attempts in the nation and has an average of 78 rushing yards per game. If Notre Dame can stop him and his backfield, they’ll come out on top. I think they will be able to just that and find themselves with another victory.
Winner: Notre Dame

Ryan: Notre Dame is following the Option-based Air Force with the option-based Navy. This scheduling is very accommodating for the Irish, being able to practice two straight weeks on this tricky offensive structure. The Irish gave up 290 rushing yards on 65 attempts. Notre Dame looked good offensively, connecting on three 30+ yard passing touchdowns. Tommy Rees is going to be a key player again against Navy who has only given up around 200 yards passing a game. Navy is going to look to dominate the line of scrimmage on offense, forcing the Irish to load the box. Notre Dame shouldn’t be too worried about Navy’s ability to throw the football. Quarterback Keenen Reynolds has passed for over 100 just twice this year. The Irish front seven will be able to concentrate on the running game and make Navy throw more than it wants to. Irish with another easy victory.
Winner: Notre Dame

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, Saturday 7:00 PM, FOX

Matt: Texas Tech was handed their first loss last week against Oklahoma in a tight battle, but ultimately it was the turnovers that costed Texas Tech, turning the ball over three times. Oklahoma State on the other hand is coming over a pretty easy win over Iowa State with Desmond Roland rushing for 219 yards and four touchdowns. This is a huge game in terms of the Big 12 title. Both sit with one loss in the conference and both still have to conference leaders Baylor and Texas. This is going to be a tight one but in the end I think that the Red Raiders bounce back from a disappointing loss against the Sooners and find themselves with a huge win over the Cowboys.
Winner: Texas Tech

Ryan: A top-25 matchup takes place in Lubbock against the Cowboys and the Red Raiders. Oklahoma State is entering with a three game winning streak whereas Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season against Oklahoma. This game is very evenly matched when you look at it from afar. Both teams are in the top-25 in scoring offense and scoring defense. The Red Raiders have the advantage in the passing game with Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb, both of which have over 1400 yards and at least 8 touchdowns. However, Texas Tech lacks a running game. Oklahoma State is more balanced, passing for 271 yards and rushing for 166 a game. The balance of the Cowboys is going to make things rough for the Red Raider defense, giving Oklahoma State just enough of an edge.
Winner: Oklahoma State

Miami at Florida State, Saturday 8:00 PM, ABC

Matt: This game is going to be huge, unfortunately I’ll be at work but I can’t wait to see the highlights from this one. Florida State is coming off a huge win over North Carolina State. Jameis Winston is not looking like a freshmen QB, after throwing 3 touchdowns last week, bringing his total to 23 touchdowns on the year and another three with rushing. If Florida State wants to make the national championship, this is a must win for them. Miami is looking to spoil that dream, but it won’t be easy. Florida State is a three touchdown favor (as of writing this blog). If Miami wants to beat the Seminoles, they’ll have to find someway to get pass the tough defense and offensive attack of Florida State, both of which are in the top 25 national. I just think Florida State is too good to be upset at home by this Hurricanes team, it may be closer than three touchdowns but in the end I think Florida State pulls this off.
Winner: Florida State

Ryan: Battle of two heavyweights takes place in Tallahassee this Saturday. Miami and Florida State not only battle for the state of Florida, but they also battle for a shot at the national title. Florida State has hitched its wagon to Jameis Winston and he has carried them every step of the way. Winston has thrown for over 2300 yards and 23 touchdowns. Miami is led by star running back Duke Johnson. Johnson isn’t the only back doing work this year for the Hurricanes. Dallas Crawford has scored two touchdowns in four different games this season. Miami has not looked as impressive as Florida State, who hasn’t won a game by less than two touchdowns all year. The Hurricanes have squeaked out the past two wins against North Carolina and Wake Forest. Now, coming to the biggest stage in the ACC, Miami is going to have its hands full.
Winner: Florida State

New Mexico at San Diego State, Saturday 8:00, Local TV only

Matt: The Lobos are just 2-5 on the season, with their only wins coming against a 1-7 New Mexico State team and an OT win over UTEP. One thing that New Mexico has going for it though it their rushing game, with 322.3 yards per game, they are 3^rd in the nation in rushing. However, they are 121^st in passing offense, and one of the worst defense at 116^th in the nation. San Diego State’s numbers are impressive in any category necessarily. However, their QB, Quinn Kaehler, is ranked 26^th in nation in passing yards per game at 261.3 yards per game. I think San Diego’s passing game is too much for New Mexico in the end and San Diego comes out on top in this one.
Winner: New Mexico

Ryan: New Mexico is coming off a bye week, giving them an extra week to prepare for San Diego State. The Lobos have once again maintained a top five rushing team, averaging over 322 yards a game. Kasey Carrier is performing well after starting the season off slow. Carrier has 858 yards and nine rushing touchdowns with one receiving touchdown. Quarterback Cole Gautsche 523 yards and six touchdowns. The Lobos, however, are not a balanced team, averaging less than 100 yards passing a game. The Aztecs are coming off a tough loss against Fresno State last Saturday, losing in overtime. San Diego State offers a more balanced attack with 269 yards passing and 169 rushing. The Aztecs have lost four games this season, with the opponents scoring 34 points or more in those games. This stat is not good for the Aztecs, seeing is the Lobos average 33 points per game. Both teams need a win to continue their hopes of post-season play. In this evenly matched game, I have to go with the team I know.
Winner: New Mexico

Matt: There you have it, our picks for some of the key matchups this week. Here are the rest of our picks for the week.  

Date	TIME (ET)	MATCHUP	TV	Matt	Ryan
Wednesday	8:00 PM	Cincinnati at Memphis		Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Thursday	7:00 PM	South Florida at Houston		Houston	Houston
Thursday	7:30 PM	Rice at North Texas	FOX Sports 1	Rice	North Texas
Thursday	7:30 PM	Louisiana-Monroe at Troy		Louisiana-Monroe	Troy
Thursday	10:30 PM	Arizona State at Washington State		Arizona State	Arizona State
Friday	9:00 PM	USC at No. 25 Oregon State		Oregon State	Oregon State
Saturday	3:30 PM	No. 22 Michigan at Michigan State		Michigan State	Michigan
Saturday	3:30 PM	Georgia vs. Florida*	CBS	Florida	Georgia
Saturday	3:30 PM	Minnesota at Indiana	BTN	Indiana	Minnesota
Saturday	TBA	Tennessee at No. 5 Missouri		Missouri	Missouri
Saturday	TBA	No. 11 Auburn at Arkansas		Auburn	Auburn
Saturday	12:00 PM	No. 4 Ohio State at Purdue	BTN	Ohio State	Purdue
Saturday	12:00 PM	No. 14 Virginia Tech at Boston College		Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech
Saturday	12:00 PM	No. 18 Northern Illinois atMassachusetts	ESPN 3	NIU	NIU
Saturday	12:00 PM	Temple at Rutgers	ESPN 3	Rutgers	Rutgers
Saturday	12:00 PM	Illinois at Penn State		Penn State	Penn State
Saturday	12:00 PM	Army at Air Force		Army	Air Force
Saturday	12:00 PM	Wisconsin at Iowa		Wisconsin	Wisconsin
Saturday	12:21 PM	Mississippi State at No. 21 South Carolina	ESPN 3	South Carolina	South Carolina
Saturday	12:30 PM	North Carolina at North Carolina State	ESPN 3	North Carolina	North Carolina
Saturday	12:30 PM	Wake Forest at Syracuse	ESPN 3	Syracuse	Syracuse
Saturday	12:30 PM	Southern Miss at Marshall	CBS Sports Network	Marshall	Marshall
Saturday	1:00 PM	Middle Tennessee at UAB		Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee
Saturday	1:00 PM	Western Kentucky at Georgia State	ESPN 3	Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky
Saturday	2:00 PM	Rhode Island at Old Dominion		Old Dominion	Old Dominion
Saturday	3:30 PM	No. 9 Clemson at Virginia		Clemson	Clemson
Saturday	3:30 PM	Northwestern at No. 24 Nebraska	BTN	Nebraska	Nebraska
Saturday	3:30 PM	Arizona at California	Pac-12 Network	Arizona	Arizona
Saturday	3:30 PM	Navy at Notre Dame	NBC	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
Saturday	3:30 PM	UTSA at Tulsa		Tulsa	Tulsa
Saturday	3:30 PM	Kansas at Texas	Longhorn Network	Texas	Texas
Saturday	3:30 PM	Kent State at Akron	ESPN 3	Kent State	Akron
Saturday	3:30 PM	Iowa State at Kansas State	FOX Sports 1	Kansas State	Kansas State
Saturday	3:30 PM	West Virginia at TCU		TCU	TCU
Saturday	4:00 PM	Hawaii at Utah State	CBS Sports Network	Utah State	Utah State
Saturday	4:00 PM	San Jose State at UNLV		San Jose State	UNLV
Saturday	5:00 PM	Texas State at Idaho		Texas State	Texas State
Saturday	5:00 PM	New Mexico State at Louisiana-Lafayette		Louisiana-Lafayette	Louisiana-Lafayette
Saturday	5:00 PM	Tulane at Florida Atlantic		Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic
Saturday	6:00 PM	East Carolina at Florida International		East Carolina	FIU
Saturday	7:00 PM	No. 19 Oklahoma State at No. 10 Texas Tech	FOX	Texas Tech	Oklahoma State
Saturday	7:00 PM	Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech		Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech
Saturday	7:00 PM	Eastern Michigan at Toledo	ESPN 3	Toledo	Toledo
Saturday	7:30 PM	Colorado at No. 12 UCLA	FOX Sports 1	UCLA	UCLA
Saturday	7:30 PM	Arkansas State at South Alabama	ESPN 3	South Alabama	South Alabama
Saturday	7:30 PM	Alabama State at Kentucky	ESPN 3	Kentucky	Kentucky
Saturday	8:00 PM	No. 7 Miami (FL) at No. 2 Florida State		Florida State	Florida State
Saturday	8:00 PM	New Mexico at San Diego State		San Diego State	New Mexico
Saturday	8:00 PM	Boise State at Colorado State	CBS Sports Network	Boise State	Boise State
Saturday	9:00 PM	UTEP at No. 16 Texas A&M		Texas A&M	Texas A&M
Saturday	10:30 PM	Nevada at No. 17 Fresno State		Fresno State	Fresno State